OTTUMWA —
A warmer, drier winter would mean less money spent on snow removal. On the other hand, a colder, wetter winter would help Iowa recover from the summer’s drought, Iowa’s climatologist said.
The National Weather Service’s winter outlook slightly favors a warmer and drier winter than normal for Iowa’s mid-winter months (December, January and February), said state climatologist Harry Hillaker.
“But there really aren’t any strong indications one way or the other,” he said. “The main impetus in that outlook was the expectation that there was going to be an El Nino event developing in the Pacific Ocean.”
Historically, he said, when that happens there’s a higher chance for a warmer, drier mid-winter season.
“However, the El Nino event has been trying to develop since April this year, and it hasn’t quite gotten there yet,” he said. “So I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in that outlook.”
As far as Iowa’s continuing drought, that’s more complicated, Hillaker said.
“Chances are the drought is not going to get any worse, even if the outlook is true,” he said. “The reason for that is at this time of year, evaporation rates — because things will dry out further — are down to almost zero.”
So any precipitation Iowa sees is going to improve things, at least to an extent, he said.
“In mid-summer when it’s in the 90s, if you don’t get rain for a few days, vegetation is transpiring and ponds are evaporating,” he said. “This time of year there’s nothing growing so you don’t have vegetation pulling moisture out of the ground.”
Chances are the drought will lessen as time goes on, he said, due to the lack of evaporation.
“The dry winter forecast, even if it does happen, isn’t maybe as bad as it sounds,” he said.
And a dry forecast means a better bottom line for the city of Ottumwa. In a previous interview with the Courier, city Finance Director Bob Jay said for the winter of 2011-12, the city had budgeted $300,000 for snow removal and only ended up spending $120,000.
Just in case, though, the city budgeted $317,000 for this winter based on averages from a period of several years.
“We normally budget for what we see in a trend over several years,” Jay said. “If it’s worse, we’ll have to come up with the money somewhere else in the fund. If it’s less, the money stays in the fund and rolls over to next year.”
Wapello County’s budget was helped as well, since they have leftover unused salt and sand from last year’s mild winter.
Fall has not been particularly wet so far, Hillaker said, but the region has had enough rain that soil moisture levels have increased. Pond and river levels will be the last things to improve in the drought, since they respond after soil has improved.
“In a big picture, it doesn’t make much of a difference,” he said. “This winter season is normally the driest time of the year anyway as far as precipitation. Even a very dry winter isn’t much different than a typical dry winter.”
Hillaker said he has heard many say this summer’s drought was especially bad since last winter was so dry.
“But generally, winter precipitation won’t make much of a difference one way or another,” he said.
Since dry soil cools much more quickly than wet soil, that could cause problems for cities if this winter is extremely cold, he said.
“The ground could freeze to a greater depth, which presents the concern of water lines freezing,” he said.
Agriculturally, farmers might like to see a really cold winter to freeze the ground to ward off adverse types of insects. On the other hand, he said, there are also good insects farmers don’t want killed off.
“So the net change won’t be that big of a deal,” he said.
Ottumwa
October 27, 2012
Winter forecast a toss-up
Any precipitation an improvement on continuing Iowa drought, climatologist says
- Ottumwa
-
-
Stabbing trial pushed back
OTTUMWA -- The trial of an Ottumwa man accused of stabbing another man to death has been pushed back. Twenty-year-old Brandon Seim was charged in November 2011, when he was 18, with the stabbing death of Andy Madren, 34. When officers arrived at the
- Downtown beautification supplemented with utility vehicle OTTUMWA -- A new utility vehicle will soon be zooming around downtown, making sure the rights-of-way remain in pristine condition. At Tuesday's city council meeting, council members approved the purchase of a city-owned vehicle to maintain downtown l
- Tornado creates local questions OTTUMWA — If there's a tornado in Wapello County, where would I go afterwards? It isn't hard to understand why local callers are asking Wapello County Emergency Management that question. Josh Stevens, emergency coordinator for the county, said since
-
Training goes beyond fires
OTTUMWA — Our firefighters aren't afraid to run into a fire, said one official, but when it comes to a Hazmat situation, they walk. On Wednesday, the Ottumwa Fire Department was on the grounds of Cargill Meat Solutions, training as realistically as p
- Veterinary clinic rezoned to commercial OTTUMWA -- The Ottumwa Veterinary Clinic is now officially a commercial district. At Tuesday's city council meeting, members voted 4-1 to approve the rezoning of the clinic from R-1 Single Family Residential to C-1 Commercial District, with Councilma
- Ottumwa lands 2015 Iowa Tourism Conference OTTUMWA — It takes two southeast Iowa communities to yank the opportunity to host the Iowa Tourism Conference from Des Moines. Ottumwa Area Convention and Visitors Bureau executive director Mark Eckman was stunned by how quickly the Iowa Tourism Offi
-
Barber shows no signs of cutting career short
OTTUMWA -- Darrell Smith's hands are steady and sure as he picks up his clippers and straight razor to begin his first haircut and shave of the day. Smith, 88, has cut hair for 62 years and has owned Smitty's Barber Shop on Albia Road for the past 58
- Roaring winds Southeast Iowa in clean-up mode after storm passes through OTTUMWA — Work crews in and around Wapello County put in a lot of hours. And they were ready to do it again. “We had the storms roll through there last night,” said Ryan Stensland, a spokesman for Alliant Energy. “Down in southeast part of the state,
-
Flood debris removal up for consideration
OTTUMWA — A month after heavy rainfall caused rivers and streams to flood Ottumwa streets and homes, the city council will solidify a plan to remove the debris left behind. At the council's meeting tonight, members will consider awarding the $12,500
-
Reviving downtown's upper stories
Building by building, the upper stories of downtown Ottumwa are coming back to life after some have sat empty for half a century.
- More Ottumwa Headlines
-
